ELSA UPDATE (JULY 4): As of the latest update, every computer model has #Elsa making landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida as a tropical depression or tropical storm on Tuesday/Wednesday. The NHC/NWS have already started issuing watches/warnings for the anticipated storm.
TROPICAL STORM & SURGE WATCH:
🌀A tropical storm watch has just been issued for all of the Tampa Bay Area & a surge watch for coastal Tampa Bay. This means that tropical storm conditions are expected in this area within the next 48 hours.
WHERE WILL THE STORM MAKE LANDFALL?:
🌀The NHC cone includes the entire Gulf coast of Florida from Naples all the way to Tallahasee.
🌀Based on the latest reliable model guidance, the most likely landfall location will be between Pinellas County (St Pete Beach area) to Levy County (Cedar Key).
HOW STRONG WILL THE STORM BE?
🌀As you can see on the graphic, there is quite a bit of discrepancy in regards to the anticipated maximum winds. The uncertainty comes from the unknown influence of Cuba's mountainous terrain and interaction with Florida.
🌀With that said, we will most likely have a tropical storm paralleling the Gulf coast of Florida.. and eventually making landfall. The odds of the storm completely dissolving have decreased. The odds of a hurricane are minimal. There is one member of the ECWMF model that has the storm becoming a hurricane before landfall, but it's fairly unlikely.
WHEN WILL THE STORM IMPACT FLORIDA?
🌀Tuesday & Wednesday. Starting Tuesday morning for south Florida and Wednesday morning for northern Florida.
IMPORTANT TO KNOW ABOUT ELSA:
🌀The storm will be fairly ragged with the strongest convection on the right quadrant of the storm. That means that, despite the center being offshore, some of the largest impacts (heaviest rain, etc) will be over land .. and not necessarily immediately adjacent to the center.
ANTICIPATED IMPACTS:
🌀Rainfall: The majority of the SW, central, and northern part of the state will receive 3-6" of rain. Spotty areas will see less and the potential for over 1/2 a foot in isolated areas is possible. The least amount of rain will likely occur in SE Florida and the western Panhandle.
🌀Tornadoes: The outer bands will bring the risk of a small tornado or water spout to most of the state.
🌀Storm Surge: 2-4 feet for the Tampa Bay Area, 1-3 feet for SW Florida.
🌀Winds: 25-50 mph. Winds will be out of the east for the majority of the storm. So, easterly facing areas, like St. Petersburg, will experience the strongest winds.
NOTE:
🌀The forecast info in this post is the most accurate I can obtain by pouring over data from the storm and models. Though, stay tuned for any changes and use the NHC as your official source.
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