ELSA UPDATE (JULY 5) -- Where, When, & What To Expect

Tropical Storm Elsa is going to bring heavy rain, gusty winds, storm surge, & isolated tornadoes to Florida. I've spent the majority of the day analyzing the storm and pouring over model outputs. My goal in the rest of this blog is to answer where, when & what you can expect in your area.

WHERE:

As of Monday evening, Tropical Storm Elsa is exiting Cuba. It's still experiencing hostile conditions due to a decoupled vortex and mountainous terrain. Regardless, the storm is going to survive and perhaps even strengthen before making landfall.

The forecast track is going to take the center of circulation about 100 miles offshore of Florida as it parallels the coast of Naples & Tampa Bay. It will likely make landfall between Citrus and Levy county early Wednesday morning. Keep in mind that tropical systems wobble, so it's possible that the center of circulation could come close to making landfall on the Florida Gulf coast before it makes its official final landfall along the southern Big Bend/northern Tampa Bay coast.

It's important to know that the heaviest rain & strongest winds are going to be on the right quadrant (aka the eastern side of the center of circulation). Elsa will be encountering about 25 knots of wind shear as it's paralleling the coast of Florida. This shear and a little land interaction is going to keep the storm from undergoing rapid intensification AND it will keep the most inclement weather over land.

WHEN:

The center of Elsa will be directly west of Sanibel/Fort Myers at 4pm Tuesday afternoon. It will continue moving to the NNW and be off the coast of St.Pete/Clearwater at 9pm Tuesday evening. The storm will then turn to the NNE and make landfall between Citrus & Dixie counties around 7am Wednesday morning. You will experience the most inclement weather when the center of the storm is closest to your location.

WHAT TO EXPECT - RAIN:

The entire state will have scattered storms or even training downpours due to Elsa. Fresh water flooding will be a major concern with saturated ground rapidly leading to flash flooding. The heaviest rain will fall on the western side of the Peninsula. Fort Myers, western Tampa Bay, up through Ocala can expect 3-6" of rain. If you happen to be caught under a training rain band then you could pick up as much as 8" of rain. The eastern half of the state around Miami and up to Cape Canaveral will see smaller rain totals. Orlando will have some heavy downpours which could easily exceed several inches of rain.

WHAT TO EXPECT - WIND:

Fort Myers/Sanibel: Maximum sustained winds around 45 mph with gusts to 60 possible. It's possible that the winds near the offshore eye could briefly approach 74 mph, hurricane strength. Tuesday late afternoon, when the center of the storm is offshore of Fort Myers/Sanibel, is when the strongest winds will occur in areas along the coast. The farther east you go, the lesser the winds.

Tampa Bay: Maximum sustained winds of 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph possible. The strongest winds will occur late Tuesday evening and will be blowing out of the southeast. Areas that have no obstruction (to the south or southeast) will have the strongest winds. This includes downtown St. Peterburg, Pass-A-Grille, Fort Desoto, Siesta Key, Honeymoon Island, etc. As you head inland to Polk and Highlands county it will be a little breezy, but strong wind gusts will mainly only occur in the rain bands.

The Skyway bridge closes when winds exceed 40mph. Rough estimate.. the Skyway will close around 7pm Tuesday and reopen around 7am Wednesday.

Northern Tampa Bay, eastern Big Bend, and North Florida: Sustained winds in coastal and wide open areas will reach a sustained wind speeds of around 50 mph, gusts to 60 possible near where the center of circulation comes on onshore. Wind, rain, surge threats will drop off rapidly west of the center of circulation.

Miami, Western Panhandle: Winds will not be a major concern in these areas other than a rogue strong storm.

WHAT TO EXPECT - STORM SURGE:

The graphic above shows the expected maximum surge for areas along the Gulf coast of Florida. As we saw with Tropical Storm Eta, last year, surge can be a major/devastating component of tropical systems... and it doesn't necessarily need to be a hurricane. If you are in an area that is prone to storm surge flooding, I'd recommend checking out this interactive map from the NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/235525.shtml?inundation#contents

There is some good news in regards to the storm surge. It doesn't appear that the maximum storm winds are going to coincide with high tide for the majority of the peninsula. High tides along the Gulf coast of Florida occur will occur around 11am Tuesday, 2am Tuesday night, and noon on Wednesday. You don't want high tide to occur when the max winds are occurring as the tide alone can add two to three feet of water on to the sea level. Eta, last year, struck at the worst time with high tide occurring with the strongest part of the storm. Locations, like Pass-A-Grille, experienced an enormous amount of inundation that flooded homes and businesses.

WHAT TO EXPECT - ISOLATED TORNADOES:

This graphic shows a new parameter called the significant tornado parameter. The graphic verifies what I would already expect. There will be a few isolated tornadoes in the rain bands that spiral out from the center of Elsa. These tornadoes are typically small and occur very fast. Many of the tropical storm related tornadoes that I have observed have been traveling up to 50 mph. It's important to have a method for receiving warning so that you can take appropriate shelter quickly.

FINAL NOTE:

Please be safe Tuesday and Wednesday as this storm passes over Florida. Stay tuned for any changes and monitor the NWS/NHC for official information.

There's no reason to panic. While tropical storms deserve respect, Elsa is not going to be a hurricane at landfall. If you've lived in Florida for a while, then you have weathered this type of storm a fair amount of times. It is definitely not a Hurricane Charley.

Inland areas won't have the gusty winds or surge risk that areas near the west coast will have. So, other than tropical downpours, effects far inland should be minimal.

As always, send me a message or comment if I can be of any assistance!