(RED TIDE -- DECEMBER 3) There's a 160 square mile area of red tide along/offshore of Tampa Bay Beaches. This is an ongoing bloom exacerbated by runoff from Hurricane Ian.
CURRENT IMPACTS:
--PINELLAS: Beaches are currently in good shape as the red tide bloom is about 10 miles offshore of southern Pinellas.
--MANATEE COUNTY: A few reports of respiratory irritation due to near shore red tide, especially near Holmes Beach.
--SARASOTA COUNTY: Multiple beaches reporting dead fish washing ashore & respiratory irritation.
--PASCO, CHARLOTTE, LEE, COLLIER: Good conditions, no red tide.
WHAT'S CHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS?
--The bloom has drifted north. Karenia brevis was most concentrated offshore of Sanibel shortly after Hurricane Ian. Gulf currents out of the south have assisted in pushing the bloom north.
--Karenia brevis (aka red tide) isn't quite as concentrated as it was a few weeks ago offshore of Sanibel.
SHORT TERM FORECAST:
--Winds this week will predominantly be offshore which should limit reports of respiratory irritation and fish kill.
--Winds & currents out of the east & NE should pause the northward bloom migration. It's possible that Fort De Soto could see a medium karenia brevis sample due to the Bay's tidal flux, but the rest of Pinellas should remain in good shape this week.
--Manatee & Sarasota will continue to have a few reports of respiratory irritation & possibly fish kill washing ashore, but the overall impact should be fairly minimal.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK:
--Previous incidents of red tide typically peaked during the late summer & autumn, then rapidly diminished in February. Sunlight & Gulf temperatures become less optimal for karenia brevis during the middle of the winter.
--So, if this red tide event follows previous years then the bloom will slowly diminish over the coming weeks.
--However, there are exceptions. The main fly in the ointment this year is Hurricane Ian. The storm dumped a ton of rain over Florida. The nutrient laden runoff has primed the Gulf with a buffet of nitrogen & phosphates for karenia brevis. How the balance between the surplus nutrients & less than optimal environmental factors plays out will determine whether the bloom survives the winter.
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