🌀HURRICANE ALERT🌀 Looks like Florida is going to be dealing with a hurricane (or strong tropical storm) this week. An area of storms off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula has a good chance of becoming "Hurricane Idalia" over the next couple of days.
WHERE WILL IT MAKE LANDFALL? The NHC outlook has a potential landfall between Tampa Bay & the FL Peninsula. All of today's models are focusing on the area between Panama City and northern Tampa Bay. Historically, the ECMWF, KMA, & HAFS models have the most accurate forecast tracks. Today these models are focusing on the Big Bend. Bottom Line: Based on today's model consensus a landfall between Alligator Point (south of Tallahassee) & Crystal River seems most likely. Though, I'll be watching the trends over the coming days.
HOW STRONG WILL IT BE? The models over the past couple of days have mainly forecast a tropical storm. Though, the Gulf has near record water temperatures and conditions appear favorable for development. Many of today's models have picked up on the favorable environment & have dramatically increased maximum possible winds. There's a wide range in projections from a low end TS forecast by the ECMWF to a CAT 4 forecast by the HAFS-B. Bottom Line: A hurricane is looking more and more likely. Intensity outlook will become more clear tomorrow.
STORM SURGE: Surge is dependent on wind speed which is still a little uncertain. Though, a few factors will exacerbate surge heights. First, this is going to be a slow developing storm which means that western Florida will have on shore winds for 48+ hours. Second, the full moon occurs Wednesday which means that astronomical tides will be higher than usual. Bottom Line: Prepare for the possibility of coastal flooding from Fort Myers to Panama City. Greatest surge flooding will be just east of the landfall location.
HOW MUCH RAIN? Areas near the center of the storm have the potential for 10" of rain. Many areas in the Florida peninsula will receive 2-4" rain. Bottom Line: Prepare for freshwater flooding. If the storm makes landfall in the Big Bend or Panhandle then Georgia & the Carolinas will also experience flooding rain.
WILL THE STORM SWERVE EAST AND MAKE A LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA (aka. Ian, Charley, etc)? It can't he ruled out. Just this morning the HWRF model had a landfall location near Fort Myers. I'll be keeping an eye on model trends.
BOTTOM LINE: It seems that the area between Fort Myers & Mobile can't escape a hurricane season without a direct landfall. We can still hope that this storm will only strengthen into a tropical storm, but it's looking more likely that we'll be contending with a hurricane. Everyone on the west coast of Florida to Mobile should be keeping a close eye on this storm. Current forecast consensus has this storm making landfall as Hurricane Idalia late Tuesday into early Wednesday between Tampa Bay & the Big Bend. Stay tuned!