The official start to the 2021 hurricane season is June 1st. The World Meteorological Organization has decided there will be NO change to the start date of this season, but we think it could be a real possibility in the seasons to come. Storms forming before June 1st are more than just possible, it’s become the new norm. The last 6 consecutive hurricane seasons have had storms form before this date. In lieu of an earlier start to the 2021 season, the NHC will begin issuing tropical weather outlooks as early as May 1st.
So what are the odds that we will see a pre-season storm develop? Cloud Nine Weather Services thinks that there is a high chance of tropical weather before June 1st. Above average Atlantic Basin water temperatures will likely play the biggest role in the premature start to the season. Much of the Caribbean, Tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico already have above average water temperatures. Near Key West, water temps are over 81 degrees, about 5 degrees above normal. The one area that is not warmer than normal is the western Gulf due to the Arctic outbreak in February.
That's the bad news. The good news is that early season storms are often hybrid storms (not fully tropical) and typically not as intense as late season storms.
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